A TikTok ban is inevitable and that spells trouble for US stocks, Gene Munster says

• A TikTok ban is bound to happen eventually, according to Deepwater’s Gene Munster.
• He pointed to Thursday’s congressional hearing, where policymakers grilled TikTok’s CEO.
• A ban could spell trouble for US stocks with business in China, which might retaliate.

A US TikTok ban is just a matter of time, and that spells trouble for US stocks, according to Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster.

In an interview with CNBC, he pointed to the congressional hearing on Thursday, when TikTok CEO Shou Chew argued against a potential ban on the China-based short-form video app or a forced sale in the US .

Munster predicted the Biden administration could allow TikTok to stay this year, in order to quell escalating tensions between the US and China. But once some of the political fire dies down, a ban is probably inevitable, he said, pointing to policymakers’ heated questioning at the hearing, which involved intense criticism of the app.

When asked if US companies that operate in China face retaliation risk, he replied, “Tesla and Apple and Nike — they’re all pinned to this five and half hours of hearings today.”

TikTok has been caught up in the broader national security debate about Chinese companies and has faced growing scrutiny in the US on concerns that it could spy on its American users.

Commentators say that Chew’s appearance before Congress this week likely failed to soothe policymakers regarding TikTok’s privacy policies, with Wedbush analyst Dan Ives calling the hearing a “disaster.” 

“The reality is this is much bigger than TikTok. This is about US-China relations, and a banning of TikTok is going to be negative for US-China relations. I think it will intensify some of the separation that’s there,” Munster said.

And while a TikTok ban initially seems like a positive for US rivals like Meta’s Reels, the House committee showed a large concern over the app’s addictiveness and its consequences on teen mental health.

“This is not just all good for Meta either,” Munster said, estimating a 10% immediate upside to the TikTok competitor before it could also see headwinds. “When TikTok gets banned I think Meta will come back into the spotlight and have to answer the same questions that TikTok was asked.”