A crypto analyst says the Bitcoin treasury strategy may not have the longevity many expect, warning that the easy upside may already be behind new companies entering the space.
“My instinct is the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a far shorter lifespan than most expect,” Glassnode lead analyst James Check said in an X post on Friday.
“It could already be over” for new Bitcoin treasury firms
“For many new entrants, it could already be over,” Check said, adding that it’s not “about a measuring contest” but rather how sustainable a company’s product and strategy are when it comes to long-term Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation.
Check said it is becoming an uphill battle for newer Bitcoin treasury firms as investors favor the early adopters. “Nobody wants the 50th Treasury company,” Check said.
“I think we’re already close to the ‘show me’ phase, where it will be increasingly difficult for random company X to sustain a premium and get off the ground without a serious niche.”
In the 30-day period up until Friday, at least 21 entities added Bitcoin as a reserve asset, according to BitcoinTreasuries data. The largest public Bitcoin treasury, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), holds 597,325 BTC, while the second-largest, MARA Holdings, holds 50,000 BTC — approximately one-twelfth as much.
Check said startup Bitcoin treasury firms attract retail speculators — but warns they don’t “have infinite money.”
Check admitted it is hard to put a time limit on the downturn for the newer firms, as he is “bullish” on Bitcoin’s price, which is trading at $107,990 at the time of publication, approximately 3.70% off its $111,970 all-time high, according to CoinMarketCap data.
“It’s a spectrum,” he said, explaining that, for example, Strategy has more runway than the 300th Bitcoin treasury company to enter the market.
Check said he agreed with Taproot Wizards co-founder Udi Wizardheimer’s view that some companies are using a Bitcoin treasury strategy as a way to make quick profits, without fully understanding its long-term purpose.
“The weak ones” may be acquired by the bigger Bitcoin players
“Many of the folks raising just see easy money and have no idea what they’re doing,” Wizardheimer said.
“I think it’ll take them some time to figure out,” he said, adding:
“The weak ones might be acquired at a discount by the strong ones, and the trend could still have a few more legs in it.”
Recently, several doubts have emerged over firms adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy.
Venture capital firm Breed argued in a June 29 report that only a few Bitcoin treasury companies will stand the test of time and avoid the vicious “death spiral” that will impact BTC holding companies that trade close to net asset value (NAV).
Related: Bitcoin’s third flop at $110K puts bulls at risk: BTC price levels to watch
On June 11, Fakhul Miah, managing director of GoMining Institutional, told Cointelegraph what concerns him most are “the copycats.”
“There are now other companies trying to create Bitcoin banks without proper safeguards or risk management. If these smaller firms crash, we could see a ripple effect that hurts Bitcoin’s image,” Miah said.
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