- Bond King Bill Gross says he’s not very bullish on Treasurys.
- Gross is more optimistic about stocks, eyeing a “little bull market.”
- He thinks the 10-year Treasury yield will struggle to fall much further from current levels.
Billionaire investor and former Pimco co-founder Bill Gross has a cautious outlook on the bond market, but see continued strength ahead for stocks.
The “Bond King” shared his take on both markets this week in a post on X, predicting a “little bull market” for stocks and a “little bear market” for bonds.
In his view, the 10-year Treasury yield isn’t likely to dip below 4.25% soon, highlighting inflationary trends and deficit concerns. The yield on Tuesday was up slightly by about one basis point to 4.31%.
Gross sees more strength in the equity markets and maintains that stocks are likely to continue rising. He cites support from the tech sector, specifically artificial intelligence companies, as a likely growth driver.
Tech stocks are enjoying continued momentum, with the Nasdaq 100 index closing at a record high on Tuesday as markets cheered the Israel-Iran ceasfire.
Major chip companies with high AI exposure, such as Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom, have all trended upward despite the high uncertainty generated by geopolitics in recent weeks.
Gross’s thesis is for AI to support economic growth of 1%-2%.
Long-term research indicates US 10 year has traded at CPI plus 175.
With inflation at 2.5% that puts a 10 year at 4.25% or so.
That was history — but deficits/ensuing supply of bonds/and a weak dollar should keep CPI from falling below 2.5% and the 10 year from falling below…
— Bill Gross (@real_bill_gross) June 24, 2025
Regarding bonds, he said “deficits/ensuing supply of bonds/and a weak dollar should keep CPI from falling below 2.5% and the 10 year from falling below 4.25%.”
As Treasurys are a lending benchmark for many consumer products, Gross’s predictions for yields to remain elevated could complicate plans for everyday Americans. If yields remain stubbornly high, homebuyers looking for lower mortgage rates could be disappointed.
Despite the unpredictable nature of the current economy, Gross adds that for now, he doesn’t see anything “too dramatic” happening in either the stock or bond market.
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