Turning to European natural gas, investment funds reduced their net long in TTF by 17TWh to 105TWh over the last reporting week, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Pipeline restart still unlikely despite ceasefire hopes
“This is the smallest position funds have held in the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) since late May. Speculators are likely reducing risk heading into the Trump-Putin summit amid uncertainty around whether we’ll see a ceasefire or stricter sanctions.”
“A ceasefire would likely put some immediate downward pressure on prices and lead to increased noise around a restart of some Russian pipeline flows into Europe, as we saw earlier in the year. However, we still believe a restart of pipeline flows remains very unlikely.”
“Despite EU allowances (EUAs) trading in a fairly steady manner in recent weeks, investment funds continue to buy EUAs, increasing their net long 8.1k contracts to 28.9k contracts. This marks the third consecutive week of increases and also the largest position held since March. While the EUA market is well supplied this year, which should cap prices, supply is set to fall considerably in 2026, leaving the market tighter.”
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