With constant fearmongery about Trump’s tariffs prompting a panic-flation, it is interesting to note that inflation data has been serially disappointing in recent weeks (printing below expectations)…
Source: Bloomberg
And this morning we get The Fed’s (old) favorite inflation indicator (until they changed their minds because it didn’t fit the narrative) – Core PCE – print at +2.8% YoY (flat from the prior month).
Source: Bloomberg
Headline PCE rose to +2.6% (as expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
The so-called SuperCore inflation remains very sticky, well above The Fed’s mandate…
Source: Bloomberg
While Cyclical PCE continues to slide, Acyclical inflation (the segment that The Fed can’t really ‘manage’), pushed higher…
Source: Bloomberg
As the cost of goods keeps rising, so does income and spending (the former +0.4% as expected and the latter +0.7%, more than expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
Remember when the Biden admin scrambled to revise GDP higher and artificially inflated the savings rate to make it possible.
Well guess what happened after all the data revisions…
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Finally, not a pretty picture…
Source: Bloomberg
So will inflation be resurgent due to Trump tariffs… or the lagged impact of the money supply surge of the last 12 months to try and pump Bidenomics?
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