Hodler’s Digest, Mar. 22 – 28

Top Stories of The Week

David Sacks’ 130-day term as Trump’s crypto and AI czar has ended

David Sacks, a venture capitalist who became a special White House official under US President Donald Trump last year, has wrapped up his 130-day tenure as crypto and AI czar but will continue to shape policy in a new role.

“We’ve now used up that time,” Sacks told Bloomberg on Thursday, noting that he will continue making policy recommendations across a broad range of tech industries as co-chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST).

Sacks has been an influential figure in the White House since Trump tabbed him in December 2024 as his key adviser on technology. Reuters noted that under ​US rules, such special ⁠government employees are limited to 130 days of work in a 12-month period.

Morgan Stanley sets 0.14% Bitcoin ETF fee, lowest in market if approved

Investment bank Morgan Stanley is seeking to launch its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund with a 0.14% fee, which would make it the cheapest in the US market and potentially force rivals to cut fees to stay competitive.

The 0.14% fee, proposed in Morgan Stanley’s latest S-1 registration statement on Friday, would be one basis point below the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC), currently the cheapest in the US market, and 11 basis points below the BlackRock-issued iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT).

“Big move here. They are not messing around,” Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said, predicting that the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) is “likely to launch in early April.”

Interview with SBF’s parents drops chance of pardon on betting markets

The chances of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried getting a pardon didn’t seem great this year, and a recent downtick on prediction markets shows that they aren’t getting any better. 

Both major prediction markets in the United States, Polymarket and Kalshi, have the likelihood of Bankman-Fried receiving a presidential pardon this year at 11% and 9%, respectively. 

Chances of a pardon have decreased 1% on Kalshi and 2% on Polymarket after a CNN interview on March 21 with Bankman-Fried’s parents, Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried. In the interview, both explained why they’re challenging their son’s fraud conviction. 

The change may be small, but the interview and the public appeals for a reconsideration of the case have drawn renewed attention to Bankman-Fried’s parents’ role. 

Cathie Wood’s ARK taps Kalshi data to help make investment calls

Tech-focused asset manager ARK Invest said it will start using Kalshi’s prediction market data to improve how it makes its investment decisions, one of the latest cases demonstrating the broader value of prediction market data beyond trading.

According to a statement from Kalshi, ARK will use prediction market data to gauge real-time expectations and guide its existing market-based research, in addition to analyzing performance indicators such as trading volume, regulatory approvals and technological milestones. ARK will also use the data for risk management and hedging strategies.

“Bringing prediction markets into institutional workflows is a natural next step for innovation in financial research,” ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood said Thursday, while the company’s research director, Nick Grous, said prediction markets “offer some of the purest expressions of risk around key economic and company-specific outcomes.”

80% of Strategy’s ‘Stretch’ buyers are mom-and-pop investors

Retail investors dominate Strategy’s “Stretch” shares, which have been used to acquire over $1 billion worth of Bitcoin this year.

Roughly 80% of STRC holders are retail investors, according to CEO Phong Le, who said on Wednesday that these investors “prefer low-volatility, high-yield digital credit.”

“Retail investors prefer low-volatility, high-yield digital credit,” he added.

The figure suggests that retail investors are still interested in exposure to Bitcoin, even though it is down about 45% from its all-time high. 

Strategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, has been stepping up sales and marketing of Stretch following the drop in Bitcoin and the company’s stock, pitching the shares as a way to gain exposure to BTC without the volatility. 

Most Memorable Quotations

“The market knee-jerk reaction may not be calibrated.”

Bernstein analysts

“Despite Step’s careful claims that crypto investing by minors was only with the permission of a parent or guardian, Step published resources encouraging kids to pressure their parents into crypto investments.”

Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Senator

“This persistent outflow suggests genuine accumulation by investors, who continue to buy and withdraw their BTC from exchange platforms.”

Darkfost, analyst

“At a time when Trump’s Washington is riddled with ethical failures and insider profiteering, California is drawing a bright line: If you serve the public as a political appointee, you serve the public — period. We’re not going to tolerate this kind of corruption in California.”

Gavin Newsom, California Governor

“There’s an appeal on the case, but we don’t think it’s fraud.”

Joseph Bankman, Sam Bankman-Fried’s father

“Related to crypto, there’s no cop on the beat. The SEC has dropped most of the cases that they’ve had against firms that had been charged with misconduct.”

Stephen Lynch, Massachusetts Representative

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $66,466, Ether (ETH) at $2,002 and XRP (XRP) at $1.33. The total market cap is at $2.30 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin winners of the week are siren (SIREN) at 79.55%, MemeCore (M) at 35.48% and DeXe (DEXE) at 18.52%. The top three altcoin losers of the week are ether.fi (ETHFI) at 21.35%, Kite (KITE) at 19.28% and Morpho (MORPHO) at 15.56%.

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraph’s market analysis.

Top Prediction of The Week

Potential Bitcoin crash below $60K may delay recovery to 2027: Data

Bitcoin has shed all its March gains, currently down 1.40% on the monthly chart and 24.6% for the first quarter of 2026. Bitcoin’s longer-term performance aligns with a deep drawdown cycle for BTC, which may extend until the end of 2026 and many analysts expect another 40% drop in price.

This scenario pushes Bitcoin’s recovery into Q2 2027, as a deeper BTC price drop tends to take longer to recover from.

Ecoinometrics data shows a clear link between the drawdown depth and recovery duration. Each additional 10% decline has historically added about 80 days to the time required to reclaim the prior highs.

At the current 48% drawdown, the full recovery cycle is estimated to be near 300 days from the October peak of $126,000 in 2025. 

Top FUD of The Week

Detroit set to enter Michigan‘s battle against Coinbase prediction markets

Lawyers representing the US city of Detroit plan to file an amicus brief in Coinbase’s lawsuit against Michigan, which argues that federal regulators should have authority in overseeing prediction markets and not states. 

In a Thursday filing in the US District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan related to state officials’ motion for a preliminary injunction, District Judge Shalina Kumar approved an order which will allow Detroit to file a brief supporting state authorities in their lawsuit against Coinbase. Kumar gave Detroit’s lawyers until April 3 to make the filing as the lawsuit continues. 

US lawmaker presses Kansas Fed over Kraken master account approval

US Representative Maxine Waters, the ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, is demanding answers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City over the approval of Kraken Financial’s limited-purpose master account.

In a letter Thursday, Waters asked Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid to respond by April 10, outlining what Kraken’s approval means in practice; which Federal Reserve services it can access; the conditions or restrictions that apply and what anti-money laundering and consumer protection measures were considered.

Kraken’s banking unit was granted a limited-purpose master account by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City earlier this month. It was seen as a milestone for the crypto industry as several crypto-linked US companies have been pursuing a master account with the Fed for years. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs break 4-week inflow streak as capital avoids ‘directional risk’

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) snapped a four-week inflow streak, posting $296.18 million in net outflows for the week ending Friday.

The reversal follows a sustained run of inflows totaling more than $2.2 billion across four consecutive weeks, including $787.31 million, $568.45 million and $767.33 million in early March, before slowing to $95.18 million in the prior week, according to SoSoValue data.

The weekly outflow followed back-to-back daily withdrawals on Thursday and Friday totaling more than $396 million, including a $225.48 million outflow on Friday alone, their biggest day of redemptions since March 3, when they posted $348 million in outflows.

Top Magazine Stories of The Week

Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work

Bitcoin and Ethereum devs are working on defenses against quantum attack, but nobody is 100% certain post quantum signatures even work.

XRP yet to ‘price in’ 3 bullish catalysts, Bitcoin to $80K? Trade Secrets

Bitcoin range bound for now with Polymarket tipping more of the same. XRP looks underpriced right now.

Agent wastes 14 hours of scammers’ time, LLMs ‘poisoned’ by Iran: AI Eye

Wasting scammers’ time using AI agents is a public service, plus why ChatGPT still thinks driving your car to the car wash is ‘peak comedy.’

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