President Donald Trump has helped boost a parabolic rally that’s pushing gold and silver prices higher.
A slew of geopolitical events and initiatives related to interest rates the president has kicked off in recent weeks has driven investors to gold, silver, and industrial metals like copper and tin.
The latest spike marks a new leg of the so-called debasement trade, which sees investors scooping up assets like gold and silver on fears that the US dollar and other currencies could be devalued.
Markets got a glimpse of the trend last year, when Trump’s tariffs fueled a bout of panic selling in US stock and Treasurys, and a flight to store-of-value assets like gold.
Now, the trade is back on.
After finishing 2025 with its best performance in decades, gold is up another 5% so far this year.
Silver, which also notched its best run since 1979 last year, is up 25% year-to-date, its best-ever start to the year.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies, has declined 1% from its latest peak in November.
A brief overview of events this month shows why investors are making the move.
- January 3: The US raided Venezuela and captured the nation’s president, Nicolás Maduro. Gold jumped more than 2% the Monday after the raid, while silver was up around 5%.
- January 9: Trump said he’ll cap credit card interest rates at 10% for a year, a proposal that financial industry experts said could lead to various consequences for consumers. Gold rose 1%, while silver moved 4% higher.
- January 11: The Department of Justice opened up a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump said he had no knowledge of the probe, though the president has pressured the central bank chief for years to lower interest rates. Gold climbed nearly 2% from late Friday through the following Monday, while silver advanced 2% to start the week.
- January 12 and 13: Trump says he’ll slap a 25% tariff on any nations that “do business” with Iran. The following day, he added the US will take “very strong action” if Iran kills protestors. Since January 12, gold has increased 1%, while silver has surged 10% higher.
The “sell America” impulse is also evident in how US bonds have sold off while the value of the dollar has declined, according to José Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers.
“There are glimpses of the ‘sell America’ trade that we saw in the first half of last year,” he wrote in a note on Monday, referring to similar moves in precious metals, bonds, and stocks when Trump first introduced his reciprocal tariffs last April.
This time, investors appear to be rattled by geopolitical tensions and fears that, if the president puts pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates prematurely, it could stoke inflation down the line,
“In addition to investors becoming more concerned about potential currency debasement and future inflation, these were supported by the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty,” analysts at Deutsche Bank said of recent moves in gold and silver on Tuesday.
In a note to clients this week, BCA Research highlighted the recent rally in commodities and said it appeared some aspects of the “‘dollar debasement’ trades” were “on fire” this week.
“Gold and silver prices could extend gains as investors double down on ‘Sell America’ trades, and alternatives to the dollar might grind higher,” Karl Schamotta, a chief market strategist at Corpay Cross-Border Solutions, wrote in a note.
The precious metals rally is getting a boost from other forces at play. Gold has been boosted by strong central bank demand in recent years. That, too, is a part of a broader sell America theme that’s seen central banks load up on gold to diversify reserves away from the US dollar.
Silver, meanwhile, has been increasingly lumped into the AI trade as investors recognize the metal’s use in data centers. Its price is also getting a boost from supply pressures and speculative trading in China.
“The ‘Sell America’ theme may be the dominant narrative,” JPMorgan’s market intelligence team said of the broader move in markets on Monday.
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