Key takeaways:
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SOL’s 5% ETF-driven rally to $160 was reversed entirely within 24 hours, exposing persistent technical weakness on the lower and higher time frames.
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SOL trades near a key $144.5–$147.7 supply cluster. A breakdown below $144 could trigger a drop to $124 or even $95–$100, where support thins out.
SOL (SOL) rallied 5% to hit $160 on Monday following news of its first exchange-traded fund (ETF) going live for trading on Wednesday. However, the momentum was short-lived as the altcoin erased all gains within 24 hours, and price weakness can be seen on multiple time frames.
In the lower time frame, SOL has failed to maintain a position above the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) for over a month. Despite several bullish break-of-structure formations, including last week’s pop above $148, the altcoin has not converted these into sustainable uptrends.
The $148 level is currently under pressure, and a drop below $137 would confirm a lower low, negating the chance of near-term bullish continuation. For SOL to regain upside momentum, a successful retest of the $145–$137 demand zone, followed by recovery above $160, remains pivotal.
On the higher-time frame (HTF), the broader trend remains bearish. In May, SOL failed to breach the key resistance at $180 and has since trended downward within a descending channel.
While such patterns can lead to bullish breakouts, SOL has remained highly sensitive to Bitcoin’s weakness throughout the past month. While Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near all-time highs, the crypto asset has declined nearly 50% since Jan. 19, reflecting relative underperformance.
If the bearish trend persists, a retest of the daily order block between $120 and $95 remains realistic, offering a more attractive long-term entry point. However, a strong daily close above $160 in the coming weeks could flip sentiment and accelerate a bullish reversal, carrying short-term momentum into the higher time frame.
Related: Analysts raise chance of SOL, XRP and LTC ETF approval to 95%
SOL UTXO realized price signals key price levels
SOL trades around $148 on Tuesday, with its UTXO realized price distribution (URPD), a metric tracking the price levels at which tokens were acquired, offering critical insights into support and resistance zones. The current price sits within a supply cluster of 14.3% at $144.5 to $147.7, suggesting strong holder concentration. This level is pivotal, as a range that could sustain the current price if buying pressure holds.
Data from Glassnode indicates that maintaining above $144 is crucial. A breach below this threshold signals potential weakness, increasing the likelihood of a retest of lower support zones.
The $100-$97 range holds 3% of the supply, while $124 supports 1.58%, offering limited buffers. If price fails to hold above $144, the market risks a deeper decline toward these levels, where thinner supply could amplify volatility.
Resistance emerges at $157, where 5.55% of supply is concentrated, posing a challenge for upward momentum. For now, the dense $144.5-$147.7 cluster underscores a solid base, where investors should defend SOL price.
Related: SOL price rallies to $161 after ETF news, but is the rally sustainable?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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