The numbers behind the oft-cited prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030 simply don’t add up, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.
“It’s mathematically impossible,” Thielen tells Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets, arguing that Bitcoin’s historical capital inflows over the past 15 years fall far short of the amount it would need to attract over the next four years to reach $1 million. “We have seen $1 trillion US dollars of inflow to bring the market cap really to $1 trillion. To $1 million [per] Bitcoin. It’s 15x, I think, from here,” Thielen says.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s market cap is around $1.28 trillion, with its price trading at $63,868, according to CoinMarketCap.
Thielen estimates that Bitcoin would need to attract another $15 trillion in capital to reach a per Bitcoin price of $1 million. This is equivalent to roughly 25% of the US stock market’s total value flowing into Bitcoin over the next four years.
“It would require trillions,” says Thielen
“It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price really materially higher, and that’s why we are not as bullish as those arguments which we think are totally mathematically unrealistic because it would require trillions,” Thielen says.
Bitcoin is down 2.35% over the past 30 days. (CoinMarketCap)
Thielen says the higher Bitcoin’s price goes, the weaker retail sentiment becomes, partly due to the psychology of investors wanting to own a whole unit of an asset.
“I think a lot of people kind of wondered, maybe I should just rather buy a new car than buy one Bitcoin, or should I really work a whole year for just one Bitcoin?” Thielen says. “People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin. You don’t want to buy a fraction of a painting.”
“Satoshis doesn’t really sound as interesting as Bitcoin,” Thielen says.
He warns Bitcoiners not just to expect Bitcoin to rebound as it has in previous cycles, and the $126,000 all-time high may not reappear as quickly as investors expect.
“Usually, it takes some time because we are at a higher market cap, and that usually takes a lot of money to push the Bitcoin price higher. So I wouldn’t argue that next year we’re gonna see new highs. If we go back to, let’s say, $100K, that would already be, I think, a big, big achievement,” Thielen says.
$1 million Bitcoin has been touted by well-known industry executives
The prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030 has been made by prominent industry figures, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood. Thielen argues that such bold forecasts are an easy way for executives to generate media attention.
(Brian Armstrong)
“Round numbers and the higher the number, the more it’s being quoted by the press,” Thielen says, arguing that extravagant predictions tend to do more harm than good.
“These optimistic price targets tend to hurt retail investors because they sort of think, OK, if this is only halfway right, then I’m gonna make a lot of money,” Thielen says.
“I think nearly everybody was still very bullish and projected higher prices [but] we came into the year already quite conservative, and you know, I think our conservative approach has been the right strategy,” Thielen says.
Cointelegraph asked Thielen which year Bitcoiners might reasonably expect Bitcoin could reach $1 million. “I don’t want to say never, but I do think, you know, a million is really a high number,” Thielen says.
“It would require, you know, a major credit event, implosion of everything.”
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