Update(1240ET): Iran state IRIB reports a new thermal anomaly detected near an oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu region, suggesting Saudi East-West oil pipeline has been targeted once again.
However, any further information or confirmation has not been forthcoming. Regarding the Ukraine war, Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery, about 200 km southeast of Moscow, was hit again overnight and is reportedly on fire.
Oil prices extend gains.
US CRUDE FUTURES RISE OVER $2 TO CROSS $100 PER BBL ON PERSISTENT MIDDLE EAST SUPPLY CONCERNS, RUSSIAN REFINERY OUTAGE
Images of Russian oil refinery fire, amid Trump-Zelensky standoff over Ukraine’s ongoing strikes on Russian oil and diesel infrastructure…
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Ryazan region Thursday, triggering a fire, regional governor Pavel Malkov said, Reuters reports. The Rosneft facility southeast of Moscow accounts for nearly 5% of Russia’s refining throughput. Earlier Thursday morning, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced an end to Kyiv’s pause on refinery strikes after Russia continued attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite Trump’s Sunday announcement of an “energy ceasefire.” “The block [on attacking refineries] is out. We’re done,” he told the Financial Times. Zelensky said another pause would require additional U.S.-made Patriot interceptors in return, calling that the “minimum” acceptable condition. 🎥 Video: Sueta
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) October 15, 2026
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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Friday once again affirmed his country is not ready to give in to force, no matter how much military pressure or sanctions it faces from Washington.
He issued the words from Yerevan, Armenia, on the sidelines of the Leaders’ Summit on Biodiversity. Pezeshkian said US-led sanctions “are beyond humanitarian frameworks and [US] attacks in recent months are unjustifiable and inhumane.”
“Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons, and we consider the destructive propaganda against our country to be lies,” he added, as quoted by Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim News Agency.
Pezeshkian then stressed: “We have always been ready to talk. They think they can make us surrender, but we will not give in to force.”
During an interview with Newsmax on Thursday, President Trump reiterated some of his key rationales for going to war, and Iran’s leader seemed to be directly responding to some of what Trump had to say.
“We want to make it so that they will never have a nuclear weapon, because if they had it, they would use it, in my opinion, instantaneously,” Trump had said, but also again claimed the conflict would be over soon. There was also this interesting exchange with the Newsmax journalist in reference to the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb or MOAB, ‘Mother of All Bombs’ in Iran:
“Well, the mother of all bombs is not nuclear,” Trump said.
Host Rob Finnerty asked, “Not tactical nuclear?”
“No, it’s not nuclear at all. This is just an extremely large bomb,” Trump said. “It’s like a tiny nuclear bomb. The mother of all bombs is one big bomb, but it’s not nuclear.”
Trump did not say whether he had authorized the weapon’s use, nor did he identify a potential target.
“The Iran war will be over very soon. It’s going to end very soon,” he said, while asserting that Iran is currently negotiating with the US. This seems merely a reference to messages being passed through mediators.
According to @CNN, Trump is considering using MOABs against Pickaxe nuclear site. I would not be dismissive of the idea as CSIS expert was on Thursday’s Erin Burnett. The rationale of using a MOAB is that the blast is so violent that it can overcome typical blast traps of tunnel entrances. It is like a small nuke; it is difficult to engineer entrances to withstand that level of a blast. The goal may be the confirmed closure of known access routes at Pickaxe, creating a monitored condition. Reopening is an observable change requiring action. That can be valuable even when the condition of the underground chambers would remain unknown. Moreover, MOABs would destroy surface support structures and utilities. Monitored closure, with lack of information about activities inside, has been the situation for months at Esfahan Mtn complex and the underground Natanz enrichment plant. So MOABs could put Pickaxe in the same condition as the other two nuclear sites. Note: Fordow was destroyed by earth penetrators, GBU-57s, reaching the underground halls via crashing through ventilation systems. While we have discovered probable ventilation shafts at Pickaxe, it is uncertain how they reach the main underground halls. But a MOAB on a ventilation shaft may be worth trying, if there is one to spare. The huge blast would be on the surface. Pickaxe is an isolated site, so neighboring communities would be unlikely to be affected by the blast.
— David Albright (@DAVIDHALBRIGHT1) October 16, 2026
That’s when Trump threw out the following dubious line: “They’ve asked us to please stop. And we do, because we’re negotiating with them.“ He also noted that he does not foresee sending US ground troops into Iran, despite some Congressional leaders expressing concern over an extended quagmire.
But as for ramped-up Iranian attacks on international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, this certainly hasn’t stopped, but instead has reached record levels this month.
In the latest Friday incident, Iran’s navy has announced an oil tanker “caught fire” after trying to cross a “restricted area” in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian navy surveillance teams “discovered and identified a violating oil tanker that had caught fire in the restricted area,” state TV said. It described the tanker “turned off its tracking systems and attempted to cross the prohibited area in the Sea of Oman.”
The navy “emphasizes that the consequences of uncoordinated movements in prohibited routes and areas are creating insecurity and many dangers for other vessels,” the statement said.
Another tanker is burning in the Gulf of Oman. Iranian Navy: the vessel had shut off its tracking systems and was moving through a prohibited area east of the Strait of Hormuz when monitoring teams spotted it. Tasnim. https://t.co/meouGpzngL
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 16, 2026
Ultimately, the situation still looks stuck and stalemated, but the big question will remain whether Trump has the stomach to take some kind of military action before and not after the November midterm elections (which he has threatened).
Iranian attacks on shipping have now surpassed two dozen instances just half-way through the month of October alone, but there’s yet to be a direct US military response, other than occasional attacks on ‘illicit’ Iran-linked shipping in the same waters.
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